A Sense of the Inevitable

July 3, 2024

Dear Friends,

If you are like me, you are aghast at recent developments within America’s political life. In my post on this website last New Year’s Eve, I remarked:

“There is much to be concerned about in the near future.  The US, and indeed the world, today are being buffeted by political and social winds that were last in play nearly a century ago.  And the disastrous undoing of the world order at that time, its horrifying evolution, and the clear object lesson those past events serve today in how to ensure it doesn't all happen again are, to the amazement of many of us, being unheeded by too many.”

But, despite the ominous signs, I found reasons to remain optimistic and hoped that you all would join me.

“This time of year presses us to look forward at the 'second chance' a new year always brings, so that's what I'm doing one more time this year, with feeling, and the hope that you are too.”

That was only 6 months ago. Back then, never did I imagine that the Supreme Court would rule, according to the Associated Press website, that “former presidents have absolute immunity from prosecution for official acts that fall within their ‘exclusive sphere of constitutional authority’ and are presumptively entitled to immunity for all official acts.” This ruling knocked the teeth out of Special Prosecutor Jack Smith’s “use of allegations that Trump tried to use the investigative power of the Justice Department to undo the election results, holding that his communications with agency officials is plainly protected from prosecution.”

And never did I imagine that Biden’s apparent but not completely unexpected cognitive decline would engender animus and blow back from his own party, a response especially dreadful when one considers the far more serious cognitive impairment of Trump and his amply demonstrated lack of fitness to lead, and the very long list of impressive achievements of Biden’s administration … a list that proves he has surrounded himself with an effective, very well-functioning governing body that Democrats should be desperate to keep running.

These developments have made it seem not at all impossible that Trump could escape prosecution and, should he win, install himself as the first American dictator.

Of course, the rest of the world is undergoing this same tilt away from democratic forms of government towards authoritarianism. There’s certainly no comfort to be had in that. If anything, it forces one to look at what the underlying causes for such a global phenomenon might be.

In doing just that, I find myself from time to time stepping back from the details and the noise in order to gain some perspective. And I have come to regard with great respect the writings of Robert Reich on this matter. The man served in government under 3 US presidents — 1 Republican, 2 Democrats — and has wisdom to spare as well as the long view that comes from deep experience. If you don’t already subscribe to Reich’s free Substack newsletter, do. He has a 10-part series of posts on his website entitled The Roots of Trumpism. He examines the intersections of various political and economic threads in American government, going as far back as McCarthyism in the 1940s, to explain today’s state of political affairs. It makes for fascinating reading.

I was also in need of perspective at the time of the 2016 election, when I was on the Board of Advisors of Scientific American. The day after the election, each of us advisors was asked to write a statement about the outcome and our thoughts about it. The other advisors -- about 8 others, all very accomplished people — were playing it carefully, even being cautiously optimistic that it was a one-off event and things would soon return to normal. I was the only one who saw in it a nightmarish, possibly irreversible transition that “could signal the end of the American republic”.

My piece was called A Sense of the Inevitable and, in looking for the causes of Trump’s win, I looked far deeper into the past than even Reich has done. While I thought after reading all the other essays that mine might have been a tad bit melodramatic, it is clear now that what I wrote was, instead, horribly on target.

Please read it, and let me know in the comments below what you think. I’d love to hear from you.